眼镜行业零售商店接近灭绝,几乎没有人准备好迎接它

Eyewear Retail Is Nearing An Extinction Event And Almost No One Is Ready For It
眼镜行业零售商店接近灭绝,几乎没有人准备好迎接它

 
The prescription eyewear business has had the same structure for a long time. You go to an Ophthalmologist or Optometrist to get a refraction exam and then buy your glasses from them or in a retail store where you try the glasses on and make a purchase. A number of companies are selling prescription eyewear online but it’s a limited market because you have to go get your eyes tested and you can only do that in a store or doctor’s office. Once you’re out getting tested, it makes sense to buy the glasses at the same time and get to try them on in person while you’re doing it.
长久以来,处方眼镜业务一直有相同的结构。你去找眼科医生或验光师做屈光检查,然后从他们那里购买眼镜,或者在零售店里试戴眼镜并购买。一些公司在网上销售处方眼镜,但这是一个有限的市场,因为你必须去做眼睛测试,而你只能在商店或医生的办公室做。一旦你出去接受测试,同时购买眼镜并在购买时亲自试戴是有意义的。
A lot is going to change. It’s hard to say exactly when, that’s up to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), but change is coming. The change is driven by advances in another area, telemedicine, treating patients remotely or electronically. The refraction exam, the test for your eyeglass prescription, will be doable at home using either your smartphone, laptop or possibly both. Most important, it will likely cost the same or less as going to a store or doctor to do it. A number of companies are working on developing an at-home version of the exam, several say they have it, and they’re working their way through the FDA to get approval for sale to consumers. I am told it is months away but even if it’s years, it won’t be long in the evolution of the industry before the test can be marketed broadly.
很多事情将发生变化。很难说确切的时间,这取决于食品和药物管理局(FDA),但变化正在到来。这种变化是由另一个领域的进步所推动的,即远程医疗,以远程或电子方式治疗病人。屈光检查,即对眼镜处方的测试,将可以在家里使用智能手机、笔记本电脑或可能同时使用。最重要的是,它的费用可能与去商店或医生那里做的相同或更少。一些公司正在努力开发家庭版的检查,有几家公司说他们已经有了,他们正在努力通过美国食品和药物管理局的审批,以获得向消费者出售。我被告知这还需要几个月的时间,但即使是几年,在这个行业的发展过程中,这种检查也不会有多长时间就能广泛上市。
The established players in the industry are fighting this change; they say it will never be allowed. Among their arguments is that when a consumer goes to a doctor’s office, they also get checked for serious eye diseases like glaucoma and a lot of prevention happens as a result of those tests. The established industry says that if consumers take their vision tests at home, they will miss out on other eye care that could help them avoid more serious eye diseases. The advocates for online refraction respond by saying they will continue to advocate for consumers to go to their doctor to get those tests. (In the farther off future, there is research being done to do those more serious disease tests remotely too but the time frame for that is too uncertain to know for now and it will certainly be longer than it will take for approvals of the refraction test.) Like so many changes in technology including streaming music, Uber, Amazon and so much more, the established interests can push back for a while but in the end, Luddites lose and change happens. Consumers want convenience and that can only be held back for so long.
该行业的老牌企业正在反对这一变化;他们说这是绝对不允许的。他们的论点是,当消费者去医生的办公室时,他们也会被检查出严重的眼疾,如青光眼,而且很多预防措施都是由于这些检查而产生的。已有的行业说,如果消费者在家里进行视力测试,他们就会错过其他可以帮助他们避免更严重眼疾的眼部护理。在线屈光的倡导者回应说,他们将继续倡导消费者到医生那里去做这些测试。在更远的将来,也会有研究在远程进行那些更严重的疾病测试,但现在还不知道时间框架,而且肯定会比屈光测试的批准时间更长)。像许多技术变革一样,包括流媒体音乐、Uber、亚马逊和其他更多的东西,既有的利益集团可以推后一段时间,但最终,Luddites输了,变革发生了。消费者希望获得便利,而这只能被阻止这么久。
Who Wins?
 
If you ask most people which company sells the most online prescription eyewear, they usually say Warby Parker. That is incorrect. The correct answer is Zenni Optical whose prices are far lower than Warby Parker’s. Zenni says it operates the largest manufacturing complex of prescription eyewear in the world, shipping about 17,000 pairs of eyeglasses per working day out of Chinese facilities of almost one million square feet. (Assuming an average price of $50, that’s revenue of over $200 million per year.) And Zenni isn’t stopping, it is building additional manufacturing capacity so it can make up to 120,000 pairs per day. The company estimates that it sells half the prescription eyewear sold online in the U.S. and no one has a bigger market share than Zenni. I have not been shown their financial statements but Zenni says it has never raised outside capital, has been profitable since inception and its marketing budget is minimal. (You can test that yourself by googling “buy online glasses” and you will find there is no paid ad for Zenni but they come up first after the paid ads.)
谁赢了?
 

如果你问大多数人哪家公司在网上销售的处方眼镜最多,他们通常会说Warby Parker。这是不正确的。正确的答案是Zenni Optical,其价格远远低于Warby Parker。Zenni说它经营着世界上最大的处方眼镜生产综合体,每个工作日从中国近100万平方英尺的设施中运送约17000副眼镜(假设平均价格为50美元,这意味着每年收入超过2亿美元)。而且Zenni并没有停下脚步,它正在建立额外的生产能力,以便每天可以生产12万副。该公司估计,在美国网上销售的处方眼镜有一半是由它销售的,没有人比Zenni拥有更大的市场份额。我没有看到他们的财务报表,但Zenni说它从来没有筹集过外部资金,自成立以来一直在盈利,其营销预算也很少。你可以自己在谷歌上搜索 "在线购买眼镜",你会发现没有Zenni的付费广告,但他们在付费广告之后首先出现)。
Since the development of online shopping, we have seen many consumer product markets disrupted by online providers. But we have never seen a market poised for disruption where there is an obvious online winner right from the start.
自从网上购物的发展以来,我们已经看到许多消费品市场被网上供应商所颠覆。但我们从未见过一个准备被颠覆的市场,一开始就有一个明显的在线赢家。
Think about this: you can get your eye test at home and it’s cheaper, faster and easier. Because Zenni is the runaway leader now, they have the opportunity to dominate the online market when it explodes. No one else has the infrastructure, scale and experience that Zenni has and it will take time and a lot of money for anyone else to catch them.
 
The biggest winner of course is consumers. They will get their glasses cheaper, faster, easier and who wouldn’t want that? The established industry will fight it but in the end the industry will lose and consumers will win.
想一想:你可以在家里做眼科检查,而且更便宜、更快捷、更方便。因为Zenni现在是失控的领导者,他们有机会在网上市场爆发时主导市场。没有人拥有Zenni所拥有的基础设施、规模和经验,其他任何人都需要时间和大量资金才能赶上他们。
 
最大的赢家当然是消费者。他们将以更便宜、更快、更容易的方式获得他们的眼镜,谁不希望这样呢?既有的行业会与之抗争,但最终行业会输,火门网认为消费者会赢。
Who Are The Losers In This Change?
 
A lot of companies are losers when eye exams go online:
 
1. The existing eyeglass retailers. The top three retailers of eyewear in the U.S. are EssilorLuxottica, Walmart and National Vision Holdings. Together they operate almost ten thousand vision locations which means these changes will have a massive impact. EssilorLuxottica alone has a market value of over $60 billion. That value is at risk as their in-store traffic declines. A lot of their stores will close and that will cascade on.…
 
2. Landlords. Someone owns the eyewear stores that will become empty and those assets will lose value. The glut of retail square feet already on the market will increase, putting more downward pressure on retail real estate values.
 
3. Optometrists and Ophthalmologists. There will be fewer exams for them to do and their market will shrink. That will drive massive consolidation of practices, reduced incomes for professionals and lower enrollments in professional schools.
 
4. Eyeglass brand licensors. A great many designers today license their names for eyewear. As Zenni and other imitators sell direct to consumer, there will be less need for those designers’ imprimatur as consumers adapt to online brands, just as we’re seeing in other consumer products. As it is, most designers sensibilities don’t easily translate to eyewear, it’s hard to tell one designer’s eyewear from another without seeing the name on it.
谁是这场变革中的失败者?
 
当眼科检查在网上进行时,很多公司都是输家。

 
1.  现有的眼镜零售商。美国前三大眼镜零售商是依视路(EssilorLuxottica)、沃尔玛(Walmart)和国家视觉控股公司。他们共同经营着近万个眼镜店,这意味着这些变化将产生巨大的影响。仅依视路公司就拥有超过600亿美元的市场价值。随着他们店内客流量的下降,这一价值正面临着风险。他们的许多商店将关闭,这将连带影响到....。
 
2. 房东。有人拥有的眼镜店将成为空壳,这些资产将失去价值。市场上已经过剩的零售面积将增加,火门网认为给零售房地产价值带来更大的下行压力。
 
3. 验光师和眼科医生。他们要做的检查将减少,他们的市场将缩小。这将推动大规模的诊所合并,专业人员的收入减少,专业学校的入学率降低。
 
4. 眼镜品牌授权商。今天,许多设计师将他们的名字授权给眼镜公司。随着Zenni和其他模仿者直接向消费者销售,随着消费者对在线品牌的适应,对这些设计师的印记的需求将会减少,就像我们在其他消费产品中看到的那样。就像现在,大多数设计师的感觉并不容易转化为眼镜,如果不看到上面的名字,就很难区分一个设计师的眼镜和另一个。
Who Stays Even
 

Luxury, high-end eyewear stores will continue to exist and can still do well. They sell service and prestige. It will be a very long time before technology replaces that.
 
Now What?
 
The retail market won’t go away. But as with so many other consumer products, stores will be less necessary and it will be harder for traditional stores to compete. They will go through the same trials that other existing legacy retailers are experiencing. It won’t be good.
 
Now is the time for legacy eyewear retailers to prepare. Now is the time for them to figure out how to develop and sell their own refraction test online. But like so many established retailers, they are resisting the change and leaving themselves vulnerable. What they need now more than anything is vision.
谁能保持平衡
 
奢侈品、高端眼镜店将继续存在,并且仍然可以做得很好。他们销售服务和信誉。在技术取代这些之前,这将是一个非常漫长的过程。
 
现在呢?
 
零售市场不会消失。但就像许多其他消费产品一样,商店将变得不那么必要,传统商店将更难竞争。他们将经历其他现有传统零售商正在经历的同样的考验。这不会是好事。
 
现在是传统眼镜零售商准备的时候了。现在是他们想出如何开发和在线销售自己的屈光测试的时候了。但是,像许多老牌零售商一样,他们正在抵制这种变化,使自己处于弱势。他们现在最需要的是远见。

 

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